On Being Wrong About Systems

Central part of generated fractal

When we treat complex systems as if they were simple (or even merely complicated) we break them.

They can recover *to a point*… and then they can’t. This video provides a quick primer on some of the math-related lingo, using the bowls and yogurt tubs from my kitchen as props.

Three key points:

– How stability works in the local part of systems and what physicists mean when they say, “To a first approximation”
– What bowls and canoes can show us about tipping points
– What skills we are going to need to navigate our rapidly changing future

With side quests to define “local minima” and also to make my claim that if you see an 8-Sigma event, you almost certainly didn’t.